Skip to main content

How Our Basketball Power Ratings Work

Every ranked team carries a single number — its power rating. This page explains exactly how that number is calculated from a season’s results, what moves it, and what it can and cannot tell you.


The Rating Formula

A base of 1500, plus four parts calculated from the season so far

Power rating

Rating = 1500 + Win % part + Margin part + Schedule part + Efficiency part
The four parts of the power rating and how each is calculated
PartCalculationTypical size
Win %160 × (win % − 0.5)−80 (winless) to +80 (unbeaten)
Margin3 × average margin per game+60 for a team winning by 20 a game
Schedule40 × (opponents’ win % − 0.5)−20 to +20
Efficiency10 × (points for ÷ points against − 1)Usually under ±5

Margin moves the rating most. Each point of average winning margin is worth 3 rating points, so a side winning by 20 a game gains about 60 — nearly as much as an unbeaten record (80). Margins are not capped, so a blowout counts in full.

Worked example. A team that is 6–1, averages 80–62, and has played opponents who win 55% of their games rates 1500 + 57 + 54 + 2 + 3 = 1616.

A draw counts as half a win. Ratings are rounded to a whole number and held between 800 and 3000.


How Ratings Update

Recalculated from the whole season, not adjusted game by game

Recalculated when a round completes

When a round is marked complete, every team’s rating is worked out again from all of that season’s completed and forfeited games so far. Abandoned games do not count. The order the games were played in makes no difference.

A snapshot every round

Each completed round stores the rankings as they stood, which is what powers the rank-change arrows, form lines and biggest-movers views.

Opponent quality is one part, not the core

Strength of schedule is the average win percentage of the teams you have played, and is worth at most 20 points either way. Beating a strong side helps mainly through the win and the margin, not through a bonus for the opponent.

Win probabilities are a rough guide

Upcoming fixtures show a win probability from the two teams’ ratings, using the standard formula 1 / (1 + 10^(−gap ÷ 400)). That formula was built for a different rating scale: here a 100-point gap can mean one team is winning by 30-plus points a game more than the other, yet it reads as only 64%. Treat it as a direction, not a forecast, especially for big mismatches.


What a Rating Can Compare

Built for one competition’s season at a time

Scope of a rating

  • Teams in the same competition and season — yes. That is what the rating is built for.
  • Teams in different competitions — no. Each competition’s season is rated only from its own games, so a 1600 in one competition and a 1600 in another are not equal. This is why the rankings table restarts at #1 for each competition.
  • The same team across seasons — no. Nothing carries over. Every season starts from its first game.
  • Competitions against each other. The competition weight sets the order competitions are listed in. It does not change any team’s rating.

Competition Weight

How competitions are ordered against each other — never part of a rating

Weight

Weight = Prestige × Tier × Level × Age

Every competition we rank gets a weight from its classification. Competitions are listed heaviest first, and a new visitor’s homepage opens on the heaviest one that has rankings. Weight never feeds a team’s rating: each competition is rated only from its own games.

  • Prestige. The standing of the body that runs the competition — the NBL, GPS, Basketball Queensland — on a 0–100 scale. It is the one factor that separates competitions with the same classification, such as the GPS and AIC First V. Scored 0 to 100.
  • Tier. Where the competition sits within its own pathway, from an elite league down to recreational grades. From ×1.5 (Elite) to ×0.4 (Recreational).
  • Level. Who plays it: professionals, tertiary, representative squads, schools or community clubs. From ×1.5 (Professional) to ×0.5 (Community).
  • Age. Open and senior competitions count in full; junior age groups count for less. From ×1 (Senior) to ×0.4 (Under 13).

Every competition’s classification and weight is listed on the competitions page.


Results & Data Integrity

The rating is only as good as the results behind it

Checked before import

Results come from each competition’s official source. A result with no confirmed score is not imported, and 0–0 is refused unless the game was abandoned, because sources use 0–0 to mean “no score entered”.

Reproducible

Every rating is recalculated from the stored game record. There is no manual adjustment layer — the same results always produce the same ratings.

Corrected at the source

When a result is corrected, the rankings for the rounds it affects are regenerated from the corrected record rather than patched by hand.


Common Questions

How to read and interpret a power rating

What is a good power rating?

1500 is a team that has won half its games, with an even points margin, against an average schedule. At the end of 2026 the top-rated sides in GPS, AIC and the CBSQ Opens sat between about 1610 and 1670. Compare ratings only within the same competition and season.

How is a power rating different from a ladder?

A ladder counts wins. A power rating also counts how much you won or lost by, who you played, and how efficiently you scored, so a team losing close games to strong opposition can rate above a team with a better record built on narrow wins over weak sides.

Why did a team drop in the rankings after winning?

Because the rating is recalculated from the whole season. A narrow win can pull a team’s average margin down, their opponents’ results change their strength of schedule, and rivals may have improved more that round.

Can teams from different competitions be compared?

Not with these ratings. Each competition’s season is rated only from its own games, so there is no shared scale — a 1600 in one competition is not a 1600 in another. Comparing competitions needs games that link them, such as tournaments where schools from different leagues meet, and that is not part of the published ratings.

Does a team’s rating carry over to the next season?

No. Every season is rated from its own games only, starting from the first one played.

How often do the rankings update?

When a round is marked complete, after all of its results are in. Each completion stores a snapshot for that round, which is what allows rank changes and rating progression to be tracked across a season.